December 14th, 2001, 12:20 AM
I just could not resist posting to this thread.Even if Zest doesn't respond I'm hoping negative will.
First of all a question:
If I teach a monkey how to hit the keys on a typewriter in a random mannner how long will it take said monkey to produce the complete volume of shakespears works?Don't know?
I will answer the question myself then:NEVER it can't happen
The probability surpases 10 to the 40th power(the borderline for a questioned event to happen in 10 billion years ,it was set I think by Emile Borel maybe someone else knows)
Evolution defies the laws of probability
The universe itself SCREAMS intelligent design.Call it "God" or the "force" whatever you like. Read "Evolution a Theory in Crisis" by Michael Denton(He is a microbiologist and anti creationist)
It is a very interesting book.His conclusions on the matter are panspermea(life was seeded from another planet) Or the "hopeful monster" theory(in other words a chicken sat on an egg it just laid and produced a monkey) that Zest is so fond of. The 'punctuation' theory is absurd in the extreme
That is why I believe in a Supreme Being
Lets get this thread going its too good to die
Well.....Negative in the words of the human torch "FLAME ON"
December 14th, 2001, 12:50 AM
The thoughts of having sophisticated monkeys roaming around our streets wearing coat & tie are probably slim to none, I agree. For they will never complete the works of Shakespear...genomes...DNA/RNA...these are the things that differ the monkey from us...human beings. Beings that revolt against whatever bounds that hold us down...we are going to the moon...why you ask? Simply because we want too...and we don't like it when anything stops us. Knowledge...is wanted to be aquired...so what do we do...grasp it. Evolution...development,...unfolding,... growth. All synonymes meaning one thing...progression. Whether mentally, or truly phisically, we, as human beings, will always evolve...and revolt.
Concerning the governments issues with privacy rights...signing statments saying "hacking is an act of terrorism" then suddenly whipping out Magic Lantern...revolt. When the government states: "Killing is bad"...yet we have an army,...the death penalty,...the right to bear arms...revolt. All the government does is stricken the people with lies. Yet we, as Americans (for those of whom are) prosper...whether be faithfully...patriotically...considerably...evolution.
...This Space For Rent.
December 14th, 2001, 01:03 AM
The monkey can write the complete volume of shakespears works, cause otherwise there wouldn't be the probability that surpases 10 to the 40th power. You need to make a difference between micro situations and macro situations. There is only 1 maro situation for the monkey to write the complete volume of shakespears works but there are many micro situations the monkey does not write it. So there is only 1 micro situation that could get us to the macro situation for the monkey to write the complete volume of shakespears works.
A simple example: there arte many ways to mess up your room but there is only one way to get it in order. (The monkey has also one way to write the complete volume of shakespears works)
I do not agree with this:
Probability is statistical so it could happen but the change to that is very, very small.
If you calculate the chance to win the lottery the way larryjs says, it seems it can't be won. And actually there are people that do win it. Your chances are just very small.
If you are 87 years old the chance you will die tomorrow is almost 100% when you are still alive the next day would this be a miracle? NO
The chance is statistical!
From the people born at the same year of the old man, tomorrow there will be almost 100% dead.
In case of the monkey the chance is so small it almost reaches the limit neever but it is not never.
Are more important question is: when the monkey do actually write the the complete volume of shakespears works is it then a copy or an original work?
December 14th, 2001, 01:48 AM
I think you misunderstood me Vic. The 10to the 40th limit is set
by the currently accepted age of the universe at 10 billon years.
The monkey could not complete the works because he doesn't have enough TIME (Let's just say this hypothetical monkey is immortal or very nearly so) Remember he has to reproduce the entire volume letter for letter.This means in some random sequences he gets thru the first chapter...then he prints one charecter out of order..well he has to start all over again..Then in the second sequence he gets thru the first play and messes up on the second
Back to the drawing board he goes starting back with the first letter.
With every letter he types the odds increase exponentially that he will not hit the next one right. Do you still believe the monkey can do it VictorKaum?
Now the odds of this happening can't touch the odds of life rising from non-life.
Lets chart a breif course
1) amino acids combine randomly to form proteins(we will discuss the pre-biotic soup later to show how IMPOSSIBLE this is)
2) proteins combine randomly to form DNA( all protens must be left turning or they will be anti-biotic)
3) DNA arrangement rightly codes the simplest cell
Thats the an extremly simplified chart for life from non-life
December 14th, 2001, 02:02 AM
The monkey has enough time
I still believe the monkey can do it.
He has plenty of time cause:
when you look at the complete volume of shakespears works written by the monkey as 1 event in spacetime the chance that event will ocur is very small but there IS a chance. So it will take the time to write it just as it did for shakespear to write them.
No one says the monkey is going to make some error and restart, probably he would so... but that's not sure that's statistic
If you throw dieces the chance that it would be hundred times 6 is the same as the chance to throw for instance 1 time 6, 4 times 5, 10 times 2, and so up to hundred. Difficult to believe but think about it, this is true.
Reason that we think the chance isn't there or smaller: the micro situation to get to 100 times 6 is = always throwing 6 so that the macrosituation becomes 6 x 100 = 600
Now this '600 macro situation' is very unique cause the only way to get to that is by using the microsituation '6' hundred times.
So the monnkey could theoretically also be very unique in his macro event = the complete volume of shakespears works.
A small error makes that it's entirly wrong -> chaos theory
In theory this works.
December 14th, 2001, 04:46 AM
A quote by DrKevorkian:
"ooooh the government is evil and they're probably going to arrest me because I like personal liberty and freedom of choice... then this is the last time I'll waste my time on this site"
Have you ever tasted tear gas? Have you ever gotten it in your eyes and all through your clothes? It's retched.
Have you ever seen police dogs let loose on people who were at a protest? And watched helplessly as the police dog bit a man so badly that his flesh was hanging and bone was visible?
This is a photo from the G20 Summit that i attended in Ottawa, Canada this past November.
We have every right to protest peacefully, and stand up for what we believe in. We don't deserve to be beaten and tear gassed by police officers who are employed by our government [by our taxes]
If we don't have freedom of choice then we have no reason to live.
December 14th, 2001, 06:44 AM
What's this nightmare doing back on the front page.
December 14th, 2001, 07:40 AM
lets make it easy:
house of representatives:
E-mail does have an impact. If you don't like something let them know.
Bukhari:V3B48N826 “The Prophet said, ‘Isn’t the witness of a woman equal to half of that of a man?’ The women said, ‘Yes.’ He said, ‘This is because of the deficiency of a woman’s mind.’”
December 14th, 2001, 09:11 AM
December 14th, 2001, 09:53 AM
What to do?
(going back to the original topic)
Life or Prison
Firefemme, yup, been there done that and it bloody hurts. (Gothenburg 2001)
Soo.. is there any other aproach? Well I´m a bit of a Greenpeace fan. Somethings they do are illegal but they get results by raising the conscience levels of the grey masses. Grassroots taking matters into their own hands can make a difference.
One that particulary comes into mind is the Power Trough Resistance defacement of CIA´s homepage in the end of -96.
The background was a hacker that contacted a company to tell them that they had several security holes in their system. They asked him to come and meet with them in person which he did (he had nothing to hide), after the meeting he has arrested and charged by Swedish security police. The trial could have fitted in the sci-fi section at any bookstore. That´s when some of sweden´s finest (PTR) defaced the CIA site (and a couple of others). The msg at the top of the page was "Stop lying Bo Skarinder", after the first bitching about computer security and mallicious hackers people started to wonder what they meant with that statement and started to read up on the subject. With that, the wankers (police, DOJ and other gov. officials) had to change their tactics. Otherwise we could have been looking at a similar situation that you Americans face right now.
I´m no Black Hat, but I´m not White Hat either. Actions like this could make the difference. Writing to your representative wont do any good if their voters aren´t ready to back them up. And they won´t do that unless they know what´s going on.
Is hacktivism the answer? I believe so, if not gimme a suggestion to what you could do? How do you raise the conscience of millions of people in a month or so?
And remember, you don´t have alot of time..
Dear Santa, I liked the mp3 player I got but next christmas I want a SA-7 surface to air missile