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Thread: Will Microsoft use Linux by 2004???

  1. #1
    Senior Member
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    Nov 2002

    Post Will Microsoft use Linux by 2004???


    Could this really happen???


    (Report from newsfactor.com)

    In a prediction almost too unbelievable to imagine, Meta Group on Monday estimated that software giant Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) will bend to customer demands and offer Linux for Web services and server software by the end of 2004.

    The Stamford, Connecticut-based research firm predicted that by 2007, 45 percent of new servers will use Linux instead of Windows-based applications, particularly for database, Web hosting and e-mail applications. As a result, the group said it believes Microsoft will respond by adding proprietary apps, including .NET , to a Linux environment beginning in late 2004.

    The research firm also noted that back-office applications, including SQL Server, IIS and Exchange, could be included in a Microsoft Linux conversion.

    Pricing could be affected in such a shift, as Microsoft would change its pricing structure to become more competitive with Linux, including repricing Windows or separating the operating system into a "kernel" with "add-on" components.

    Currently, Linux is used on between 15 and 20 percent of new server operating systems, Meta Group said.

    Microsoft Denies Claim

    Peter Houston, senior director in Microsoft's server group, told the E-Commerce Times in a statement that "Windows provides greater business value and lower long-term costs for customers that the competing platforms, including Linux. Microsoft will not be engineering server software expressive for Linux and continues to make its bets on the Windows platform."

    And Yankee Group senior analyst Laura DiDio told the E-Commerce Times that she believes Microsoft will only make such a move if market conditions force it to do so.

    "I think they probably have some development teams working on it just in case," DiDio said. "But I don't think Microsoft is going to support Linux unless it becomes painfully clear that they absolutely have to because customers are demanding it."

    Forcing the Issue?

    Customer dissatisfaction with Microsoft, coupled with a still-stagnant IT sector, could force the Linux issue sooner rather than later.

    DiDio pointed to a Yankee Group study conducted earlier this year, in which 38 percent of respondents said they were actively looking for Microsoft alternatives. Moreover, when asked which vendor they would most like to discontinue business with, Microsoft was the number one answer of respondents.

    "[Respondents] were so angry with Microsoft over licensing and the price hikes, the perceived bullying, the monopolistic practices and so on," DiDio said. "[Microsoft] has got to be concerned."

    Negative Comments Backfire

    The most recent concern of the software giant has been an effort at publicly softening its stance on open source initiatives.

    Microsoft's response to the growing pervasiveness of Linux has been legendary -- the company has called it a "cancer" in the past. But the software giant's tone has changed in recent months.

    A company memo posted last month at OpenSource.Org detailed the results of an open source research project presented at a Microsoft internal Linux Strategic Review in Berlin in September.

    The report, Microsoft's Attitudes Towards Shared Source and Open Source Research Project, aimed to better understand how certain groups perceived open source, Linux, Shared Source and the GPL , as well as to understand which "messages" would be effective with each audience.

    "Messages that criticize OSS, Linux, & the GPL are NOT effective," the memo noted. Moreover, messages that undermine the open source effort "are only marginally effective in driving unfavorable opinions around OSS, Linux, and the GPL, and in some cases backfire."

  2. #2
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    Jul 2002
    Seems like I read something in Linux Journal a couple of years ago that Microsoft had loaned or given millions of dollars to Red Hat. I don't recall the reason. I remember hearing something then that MS was angling toward Linux for a future OS. What I heard could have been a prediction. I'll see if I still have that copy of Linux Journal and re-read the article.

  3. #3
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    Aug 2002
    I posted my opinion here..awhile ago, Bill gates have been thinking to buy Linux ...he he..he..(maybe )
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  4. #4
    Shadow Programmer mmelby's Avatar
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    Jul 2002
    Ft. Myers, FL
    Here is the link to the CNN story about the same thing...

    Work... Some days it's just not worth chewing through the restraints...

  5. #5
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    Jul 2002
    When doing an interview with Microsoft last month, I asked them the same question. They said that they were not planning on migrating anything to linux and were confident that they would win the OS war in the long run.

  6. #6
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    Dec 2002
    No way for Microsoft turning to Linux. They almost finished the Longhorn OS.Why turn to Linux?In the long term they'll win the war.

  7. #7
    Senior Member problemchild's Avatar
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    Jul 2002
    No way for Microsoft turning to Linux...... In the long term they'll win the war.
    Don't be so sure. The backlash against Microsoft right now is HUGE because people are absolutely livid with the new pricing structure. They're jacking everybody up and trying to lock people into high priced multi-year agreements that they don't want because they're afraid of the gains Linux is predicted to make in the next few years. And their apparent inability to put together any kind of effective security policy isn't helping things any. They may not be hurting, but they are definitely feeling the pressure and it isn't going to get any better for them any time soon.

    If things reach the point where Microsoft believes they have something to gain from it, or that they will lose less by doing it, you can be sure that they will. It wouldn't be completely unprecedented. A few years ago when Microsoft gave a large cash infusion to Apple and declared its committment to support MacOS, a lot of people thought it was the apocalypse. It has long been rumored that Microsoft has development teams actively porting Office and other applications to Linux - just in case. Say what you will about Microsoft, but they are incredibly shrewd and I have no doubt that they have all the bases covered and are prepared for a number of contingencies.

    Is it likely? Not really. But possible? Absolutely it's possible.
    Do what you want with the girl, but leave me alone!

  8. #8
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    Dec 2002
    Up to apoint I agree with you problemchild.Every succesful company should have all bases covered, but what I believe is that Linux will turn to Windows,not the opposite. Take a look at Linux right now and compare it with what it was at the beginning.Same with Win.Prices up, security levels decreasing.Linux will reach its zenith as a home user OS in a year or two (IMHO), while Windows always have to offer something new. As we know, whoever controls home users wins the war.And yes, though I run both XP and Mandrake dual-boot I always was a Microsoft fan.I'd like to hear your thoughts.

  9. #9
    PHP/PostgreSQL guy
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    Dec 2001
    The reason linux has gone to the 'windows' appearance is because in the beginning, you had to REALLY know what you were doing to install, much less use, linux. That's not for the 'common' person and if it's going to be a business solution to any level, it's got to look like what people are used to and that's a windows scheme.

    Businesses who don't have the money to spend on big honkin' servers running the latest Windows 2000 Advanced Server or 40 desktops each with NT 4.0 or Windows XP Professional where licensing is such a big cost factor now have a solution that's cheap, support is available, installation is a ton easier now, updating is a lot easier, and overall is better for them. Once executives of major companies realize that linux is not a fad (it's 10+ years old at this point) and that it can provide valuable services that costs a fraction of anything Windows-based and has the proven stability for those naysayers that state it's not able to perform on the same level. They're right...it doesn't...it surpasses "the same level".

    It comes down to support and a ton of businesses are still being trapped into the "you buy from us because you know we support you" or "buy from us and get a server free" contracts that last years. Instead of hiring paper-MCSEs, once these businesses realize that you can get the same product (think on it, there are other methods to creating business-related documentation outside of excel spreadsheets or powerpoint displays) that does Internet, email, and other simple stuff. The problem is, they don't know, and won't know until others try it and do it.

    If I ran a Fortune 500 company and was in charge of the IT department, I'd have Exchange replaced with sendmail/procmail (there's graphical setups for both), IIS (ROFL that's a joke product if I ever saw one, I'm STILL getting hits from infected Code Red I & II servers) replaced with apache, then have all the desktops made from a single image (ignited) regardless of flavor (RH, Caldera, BSD, etc). Then, with the massive amount of money I've saved, I'd buy the entire IT dept. dinner and donate 10 grand to the GNU / Apache foundation and STILL look good to my boss because I saved so much more money. Hire a few diehard linux people, document everything with sgml and administer remotely with ssh and a broadband VPN, allow the helpdesk to do things through webmin and look at that...we now have a more educated IT department and stability/performance is through the roof.

    MS runs the desktop...that's it. It can't compete with an Open Source OS that, while it will have holes, as they all do, strives to be better and proves it year in and year out. Linux will be both in businesses and desktops and will do good in either.

    EDIT: once games are either able to run perfectly fine on linux machines or produced as linux binaries (God, I miss Loki Software), I'm off the Windows platform for life. Only a matter of time, really...
    We the willing, led by the unknowing, have been doing the impossible for the ungrateful. We have done so much with so little for so long that we are now qualified to do just about anything with almost nothing.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    cant agree with you guys more. frankly, microsoft just cant beat the price. actually they can, but they wouldnt dream of lowering it and put a dent in their multibillion dollar operation. i can just remember bugging my mom to get the upgrade from win 3.1 to 98. she absolutely flipped at the price of $100. now imagine if linux was as practical for desktop use then as it is now... i wouldnt be sitting at an xp computer, thats for sure.

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