Computer Evolution

[nihil]

More features in software = more code = need more CPU power and RAM

I would buy that if you replace "more features" with "sloppy design and coding"

I have conducted a few simple experiments with Office Suites and Browsers, and they don't seem to actually use that much more resources at any one point in time.

Graphics and multimedia of course, are a different issue.

Given that the "average user" (certainly in an office/institutional environment) is only using a bit of e-mail, some web based applications over their LAN/WAN, transaction processing, word processing and simple spreadsheet stuff; they don't need the processing power that is currently available, let alone any more.

A lot of the apparent "improvement" is just an artifact of "benchmarking software" and is not really noticeable in real life

I remember testing a PI/166 against a PIII/733: the bootup time difference was less that 2 seconds, shutdown was about 4 seconds. Windows NT 4.0 SP6a.

There was no noticeable difference in day to day activities (Office 97 etc......) unless I provoked it by doing heavy duty Access and Excel data manipulations.

The reason we did this was to test updates, new releases, and new software to determine if we needed a hardware upgrade element in the project budget.

[alakhiyar]

Thanks for every input. I think I'm getting some ideas. Advanced systems are used to do memory and speed intensive tasks like in a research. Then the general public benefits from it, such as when a research is successful. Obviously we don't need 1000TeraHz and 1Tb RAM in our PCs. There's one question to ponder here. Faster computers would have almost no buyers from the general public (what I mean is really fast computers in the next 10-15 years) since consumers would be purchasing not so advanced computers at a dirt cheap price. What is $1000 today might be $30 in the future, and it still do what we want it to do. Do you think ordinary softwares like Words can keep up in a pace that superfast computers are desirable even in the common household?

I would predict a catastrophic downturn of the computer industry if not many people are buying advanced computers. The manufacturers can make the old ones obsolete but the old ones can be kept and still be used. I don't think making the old ones obsolete is going to force the ever increasing population to buy the advanced ones because new manufacturers will emerge to take the opportunity to produce the old technology and gain from it.

Any comments?

[nihil]

Hmmm, you raise several issues?

1. General Public Purchasing

Anyone who does gaming and other graphics intensive stuff will tend to buy the best that they can afford. There are others who will buy stuff just to show that they can afford it, not because they need it, or even know how to use it

Also, take into account home networking, I predict a rapid increase in this, and some people may feel that they want at least one fast box to act as a server. At least that is how Computer World and Dixons will sell it (UK retailers folks)

Microsoft Vista...........what effect will that have? in any event we all know that MS are no slouches when it comes to marketing.

2. Pricing Considerations & Market Forces

There is a price below which it is just not worth selling stuff, and that is a lot more than $30, particularly if you have warranty and aftersales service to provide.

Institutional buyers go for minimum specifications, but General Public users looking for a bargain are more likely to go for second user stuff in my opinion. Outfits like e-bay will contribute towards this trend? There is actually a sort of inverted snobbery (bragging rights) in picking up a bargain.

3. Software Capabilities

Right now (December 2006) hardware capabilities have way outstripped "average" software packages such as office suites. This is by design, as it is always in the software vendor's interests to be as compatible with as many hardware platforms as possible.............anyways, they aren't exactly rocket science, are they?

On the other hand, I see gaming and design/graphics software keeping up with hardware developments. There is still a lot of room for improvement in these areas.

4. The Future?

I do not see people coming in with "old technology" as the patents are still in force. There may be a temporary demand for secon user stuff, but that is about all I would expect