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It is close now. Will we see it this decade or later?
Factors to consider are new members of the union, the rising powerhouses of Germany, France and UK leading the charge.
More and more tech and engineering firms are finding customers in the third world.
Which economy will be stronger and larger in the next ten and twenty years?
The answer to your question is, for me: No, or not in this way.
The European Union is too badly organised to work really well, it's not really a federation or an association. It's: "We're the best friends in world only if you don't touch to my politic" (it's like U.N, in worst!).
And as we have not really big and strong firms...
Europe will be held back by tariffs, subsidies, and socialism.
It will never be competitive because of a history of paternalistic
social policy, government ownership of industry, and the political
influence of low-productivity sectors like French farmers on their
40 acre farms. European automobiles, for all their prestige, can not
measure up to Japanese products. The low birth rate means that
there will be more pressure to import foreign workers, with all the
social problems of xenophobia, racism etc.
:cool:
It all depends at how well the EU handles it's economics.
More countries want to join the EU and not necesarily rich ones.
The euro has seriosuly screwed up the economy as well, Holland's economy isnt doing so well and we're slowly but surely dealing with inflation (all thanks to the euro).
So I would say it depends at who joins the EU and what our leaders have in mind for the next 4 years to come.
i would like to see an african union
european union, united states of america and a latin american union all working together not competing and improving the living conditions of developing nations hopefully in the next twenty years.
that would be the ideal situation. but EU economy vs. U.S. economy, i really dont think european nations have a chance, culture differences, language barriers and politics divide, america is one.
Well, language barriers I can understand, in some countries ppl. just refuse to either learn or to speak English.
Let alone to learn any other diffrent language. Dutch schools teach their students a lot more languages then just English.
Politics are also a problem since some countries now have a socialist/green government and others (like mine) have right-winged governments.
Also another subject that will cause a lot of controversy is the fact that Holland has cut their budget for asylum seekers with 90%
Meaning that other EU countries will be overwhelmed with ppl applying for asylum because they know they will stand a far lesser chance of getting a status in Holland.
I'm not so sure about europe being the next economic power house but one thing I a'm sure of is that the american economy can't be number 1 forever. I guess the question is who's next in line.
I agree with cwk9, your winning streak cant last forever. now, im not a financial know-it-all (more like a know-nothing-at-all) but i'd hazard my guess with asia. China has more than 1 billion ppl, and thats a huge corner on the international market. Japan has always been a power in high tech, and without the labour restrictions imposed in the US and Europe, they are free to have sweat shops and underpaid, overworked labourers whose products will gladly be bought for a cheaper price here in the 1st world. Just my 2c...
Edit: above: china is the one with sweatshop problems, not japan. ;)
Why cant Europe be #1.
The US is having problems financially - think Enron, Anderson etc. Plumeting stock values and a president with his head up his a*** (Kyoto - where's that?) The way everything is going, global firms are taking over - why shouldn't Europe have the lions share of it. 250 million people and 4 of the G8 nations.
Sure Asia has slack employment laws and sweat shops - but until they sort out that they will never have a global economy. Japan possibly, but they have nowhere to develop. They are seriously overcrowded and still trying to sort out their economy after years of reform.
The Russian federation - now thats a possibility if they can recover from communism quickly - huge natural resources and untapped potenial, but i think that will take more than 20 years (but keep a close eye on them)
Now if Canada becomes the 51 st state then we could have something to worry about
But as it stands if any one nation is to replace the US as top dog economically it will be the European Federation, but only after the UK joins and the other member nations actually try to make it work. None of this peicemeal stuff - one in all in. Government, money and social unity.