Is Mr. Zarkawi crying in his coffee?

From everything I can see, even from the more liberal, (for want of a better way of putting it), media the election in Iraq was a resounding success, a huge blow for the insurgency, a positive victory for the human spirit and something of a vindication of President Bush's policy despite the apathy and condemnation of many.

No, I'm not naive enough to believe that everything will be peachy from here on in but the signs are there for everyone to see.... The joy of so many, the turnout itself, the relatively low level of violence and the determination, through fear, of so many.

I think a message has been sent - not only to the "little" things like the insurgency but also to the Arab world and the world as a whole.... Given the choice people want a choice.....

Thoughts, expectations, hopes, fears?

I agree Tiger, but my name wouldn't be Negative if I wouldn't counter some of it :D

While the turn-out was higher than expected, "only" 60% of those who registered themselves went to vote... that's not "overwhelming". The turn-out was a complete success in the North (Kurd-territory) and in the South (Sjiites), but in the West (Sunnites) the turn-out was close to zero, as it was in the big cities (Baghdad's turn-out was close to zero, apart from the small Sjiite community - same for Ramadi and Mosul, and Samara where the elections got cancelled). It's not surprising that the Sunnites didn't show up - they're boycotting the elections out of fear for Sjiite leadership... Leadership that will consist of some funky ayatollah - and he's not Iraqi, he's Iranian. That should get interesting: Iraq being led by an Iranian... can't wait to see what will happen if the US ever attacks Iran :D

And then there's the problem of other neighbors: most of them (all the Gulf states, and Lebanon, Syria, and Jemen) have Sjiite minorities. Authorities in those countries are already in arms to prepare for what might happen when the Sjiites win in Iraq.

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"only" 60% of those who registered themselves went to vote... that's not "overwhelming".

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But it IS more than the UK general election of 2001 : 59%.

http://www.antionline.com/showthread...hreadid=265645
Link to the other Iraqi election thread.

Is that 59% of eligible voters, or 59% of people who registered themselves? Just wondering, because if only 50 people would register, then even a 100% turn-out wouldn't be that impressive ;)

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Originally posted here by Negative
Is that 59% of eligible voters, or 59% of people who registered themselves? Just wondering, because if only 50 people would register, then even a 100% turn-out wouldn't be that impressive ;)

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Given the circumstances within which they had to vote....possible bombings, injury, even death....either way, I'd say it's impressive.

A C130 has gone down north of Bagdad, with a loss of at least 15 Brits. The elections are not even news for me at this time.

I can only imagine what it would be if 60 percent of Americans who were registered to vote actually voted - can you say 'Record Voter Turnout?' It is indeed an overwhelming response. Don't let the statistics fool you.

Black > I'm not letting statistics fool me... I was just wondering (and still am) what is meant by "registered voters"? Is it people that are eligible to vote (everyone between 18 and 150 or whatever), or is it people who registered to vote? That makes a huge difference...
From what I've heard, around 8 million Iraqi's turned up, and that indeed is a huge turn-up :)
If I'm correct, that's waaaay more than the American turn-up....

Still: if the majority grabs the power (the sjiites), and they will - hold your wallet, cause you're going to be paying taxes for another couple years of "peace-keeping". I'm just saying that it's far from over there... no matter who wins. If the majority wins (the Sjiites), the sunites are going to get maaaad... like they are now, but times 10. If the minority wins (the Sunites), everything will remain the same... so the US can invade them again :D

In short iraq is still more or less ****ed up for a couple of years. If not longer.

It will be interesting to see what will happen if the wrong group (from the americain point of view) wins the elections. Will bush pull the army out and respect the wishes of the voters or will a security force need to stay in place to protect the newly elected goverment. There is a very good probablity that Iraq will turn into another Iran.

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Originally posted here by MURACU
It will be interesting to see what will happen if the wrong group (from the american point of view) wins the elections.

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I bet the Mr Bush will cancel elections arguing that had some "fraud" involved. He didnt invade Iraq just to see it turning worst (from american point of view) that it was.

And about Iraq turning Iran, i think instead "turning" why not "merging" and create the new Persia Empire?

What the world is saying about the elections...from over 4000 sources...

http://www.einnews.com/iraq/newsfeed...18416&afid=384

considering it was the shia and kurds who turned out ID say things are going to get even uglyer, expect the new goverment to call for imediate US withdrawl and some sort of religious law to be setup....while in the north expect more and louder rumblings about breaking off into a new country and now that the kurds have a political voice it may happen....no way turky gose for that.

Iraq...courtesy of the CIA World FactBook...

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/...k/geos/iz.html

By the way...you might want to bookmark this for future Country references. Canada has been updated a few days ago.

Registered voters is just that "registered". They filled out the paperwork. 60 percent of those who registered actually cast their vote. If it was 60 percent of the population, as in registered or non-registered that would be even more amazing considering to cast a vote you rolled the dice a little, in that you would be executed. 60 percent of registered voters is a good turn out by any standard in a democracy who is at peace and not in a struggle for power by war lords. The notion that Iraqis do not desire a democracy is purely political grand standing.

One could guess of likely outcome scenarios, all bad. Hell Sadam himself took power through a coup. One could also imagine a constitution and a government with safeguards to help prevent it. I am not so sure Turkey would mind a Kurdish state, as long as it was not within their borders. Hmm, democratic Iraq could become a Turkish ally, the ONLY two democratic states in the Arab world may find some compromise among one another.

Not that I want to get into this argument ... because I don't ... I am amazed by one thing that has been left out...

Considering that the millions of Iraqi's that live "outside" of Iraq were allowed to vote...I wonder what the "real" percentage was of Iraq's living in Iraq...are there any statistics on those figures?

Most of those "registered voters" that everyone keeps talking about might not even be living in Iraq.

Egal:

Example of those "millions" living outside Iraq..... Where I live, Detroit, is home to the largest population of registered voters in the USA.... I don't think that the 9,500 or so Iraqis that were registered here will make that big of a difference.....

Al Gore just called: He wants a recount......

Hi Tiger Shark,

You're right...but if you factor in all from every city and country in the world...and the tens of thousands in Syria and the rest of the middle-east we could be talking about a pretty hefty percentage. I don't know the figures that's why I asked. It would be interesting to know the real breakdown from each Country and how that affects the outcome.

Personally, I've already expressed my veiws in another thread...which is why I've pretty much kept out of this one.

Al Gore just called: He wants a recount ! :D Still makes me laugh :D

How about "I was for the election, but didn't think it would work, and it's too early to tell"

It's tough to wade through the negative crap on the net, hordes of it... but as of 22 Jan Here is the breakdown according to the Associated Press.

93,847 of those millions actually registered. I too was interested in that data...

AMAZINGLY most were in Iran. Man there are alot of Iraqis in Europe.

Austrailia - 5.158
Britain - 8,506
Canada - 3,473
Denmark - 5,084
France - 267 Isn't that interesting?????????
Germany - 6,448
Iran - 20,805
Jordan - 5,019
Netherlands - 4,882
Sweden - 10,773
Syria - 2,144
Turkey - 6,086
UAE - 8,966
USA - 6,086

I think it is much too early to be making any statements about the elections, positive or negative. I think the 60% turnout, considering the situation (bombings, threats, no cars, etc), was sufficient for there to be enough legitimacy and I hope that things work out, but only time will tell.

One thing I did consider encouraging was the number of people that were appeared to be quite happy with voting and celebrating and calling Iraq their country (as well as the performance of Iraqi security). I hope this is a sign that things will improve to the point that our troops can start coming home, but I hold no illusions that the reality on the ground could be quite different and can change quite quickly.

That is true Nebulus, there were people dancing in the streets and waiting in line for hours, while at anytime someone could attack them. They were calling it their country and regardless of my political slant I cannot help but feel like the future has potential.

BTW everything leading up to opinions in this thread is speculation there is absolutely no word on any actual voting numbers other than a good estimate of national turnout.

And I want to say that those in the British plane that went down did not die in vain, if they could see the result of their help they would feel otherwise.

Lets get this straight according to that data out of all the iraqis in the world, 93,847 registered to vote and then 60% turned up ?

or am i reading this wrong.

cause that would be 56,308 votes. Seems like a bit small a number.

That number is that number of Iraqis that do not live in Iraq.... The estimate of people who voted in Iraqis about 8 million.

Good. :D

I was confuzzeld about that for a bit.

Interesting..... Not unpredictably so, but interesting all the same....

After about a day there are 9 votes.

4 were on the "I didn't agree with the policy side and I didn't think the election would work" side and 5 were in the I agreed with the policy and thought the election would work side..... But there is nothing in the middle.... I know it's hardly a scientific study and a reasonable sample size but so far it demonstrates the divide in the world regarding the policy and the election.

I would be interested to hear from the two who have said the election is a failure. Specifically, what factors are you looking at when you determine the failure? What would have had to happen for you to have considered it even a limited success? How nuch do you think that your expectation of failure of the election influences your determination that it did fail?

Just interested....

Sorry about the confusion MoonWolf. If Tiger's estimate that 8 million voted, and only 93 thousand were from outside the country, then one would come to a conclusion that the great majority of votes were cast inside the country. And that outside influence to there democratic election is minimal? Even if it was substantial, those are Iraqis voting for the future of their homeland and it was the decision of the provisional government to allow that. Oh And of the 8 million... that represents 60 percent of those who registered so alot of Iraqis registered to vote. Sounds to me like they not only want democracy, they will eventually fight.

tiger i was one who felt it was a failure, when a large comunity dosn't vote at all, its hard ot call an election a sucess...that would be like haveing an election in america where the latino vote didn't turn out at all, 0%, and then go on to say how we realy reached people in the election...this election didin't change anything about the situation there, and depending on how badly we have missread the Kurds and sistani (the big winners) it may have made things much worse. Or are you going to claim that the kurds wont be angleing for a indipendent state within a matter of years?

bbalad, You can't force them to vote and in not doing so they are excercising their freedom. unfortunately they are too stupid to realize if they aren't afforded a voice in the government they could find themselves at the mercy of their leader. They are following someone blindly at the moment. 8 Million of them did vote. If the Kurds angle for a seperatist state, then Iraq will have a civil war to deal with, like we did... and Britain and the French... etc A faction of people refusing to vote on their own destiny is not a failure of the whole. Who are these people you speak off? How many are there? What do they represent. Do that have veto power in the assembly?

And if failure rides on "what if" nothing will ever be resolved. What if the kurds consider an Iraq where they have a voice in parliment is their home? What if it's changed to "The Republic of Democratic Arabs"? What if Mrs. Jones walks her dog in the rain on Tuesday?

BBallad:

At this point you can't really say that a particular "section" voted zero percent....

There are stories from kirkuk which is 40% Sunni that claim a 95% turnout..... What does that mean? Not much on initial "guesses".... Let's wait and see what the Sunni turnout was.... Fair?

As an aside I read reports that Shia based 'parties" in the Sunni based southern regions were smart enough to understand that they _need_ the buy in of the Sunnis so they incorporated Sunnis in their "list of players" to give them the legitimacy they need and deserve....

The Iraqi's aren't dumb people..... They will work this out..... Will they need some help in the security "arena"? Yes, of course.... But now they all know that they aren't all alone in wanting freedom I think you will find that there will be an acceleration in the process.... Until yesterday there were 8 million people that thought that they were the only ones that felt the way they did..... now they know better..... ;)

I can't help but wonder; what will happen if a shite or sunni or is elected... what will happen to the kurds ? what if a shite is elected and the sunni's don't like it, I wonder if in all the turmoil, a fanatic of Zarqawi or other terrorist cell is going to try and kill (read: kill) the newly elected president. I certainly hope not, but I can't help but think about it being a strong possibility.

Hi RoadClosed,

Thanks, that was what I was looking for...like I said I didn't know and I was surprised no one brought it up...I actually thought the number would've been much higher...apparently I gave the millions of Iraqi's that live outside of Iraq more credit than they deserved...I thought that they would turn out in droves...apparently they must have abandoned hope for their own homeland and have resigned themselves to their adopted countries.

On an issue such as this I would have at the very least expected the disenfranchised Iraqi's to vote for the sake of relatives they have in Iraq. Apparently they don't care as much as I thought they would.

[edit] according to Canadian news-print there was well over an estimated one-million eligible voters outside of Iraq...74 intenational polling stations were set up ...one in Dearborn, Mich...which had 95,000 eligible area voters ( some of which were Canadians living in the Windsor area )...only 10% registered...and apparently, by RoadClosed statistics of 6,086( which were for the entire country ), probably only 1% in the Dearborn area even voted. [edit]

You are assuming that is the reason they did not vote. Perhaps the iraqi's not living in iraq who did not vote felt that since they were not living in iraq they should not have a say, it's impossible to tell.

I'd like to reiterate the point that the Sunnis who decided not to vote were actually given the chance to vote. The example of the latino community's votes not counting was not a good one because there is a difference between a vote not counting and someone using their vote. And as much as I would prefer any democratic assembly to fairly represent all the people of a country, I do not respect the reason that many of the Sunnis chose not to vote.

While Saddam Hussein was in power, the Sunnis were the rulers when the country is made up of a majority of Shias. The reason that many Sunnis do not want to vote is because they realise that in an election where everyone in the country has a say, they are not going to end up having a majority say in the government and will no-longer be the rulers. AFAIK, this is the reason for much of the violence.

Don't quote me on the above...as you can no-doubt guess, this is a fairly opinionated post.

ac

Tiger Shark: a lot of the kurkut vote was Kurds moving in to the area to vote there, the faction of kurds who want to from an independent Kurdistan see kurkuit with its oil as an important part of that nation. What we are seeing here is three distinct large groups that where forced into a coherent nation in the 1920's by the British. None of these group wants to be ruled by the others but we can’t break them up as that would strengthen the Iranians and incite the Turks. As for the an inclusive government, lets see what faction of the shite come into power.

My only concern with the elections is there are diffrent groups who oppose each other and that there will be a bloodbath over who is elected. I oppose the war in Iraq and now that we have accomplished our goal of a democratic election in Iraq we should get out. I also feel that the law of unintended consequences is involved in this: meaning that Iraq will be turned into another Iran especially after we invade Iran for developing nuclear weapons and WMD.

Thought I'd add in this new development here - It's a classic when you think about it.

from here:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,146107,00.html

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BAGHDAD, Iraq — Iraq's leading Sunni Muslim clerics said Wednesday the country's landmark elections lacked legitimacy because large numbers of Sunnis did not participate in the balloting, which the religious leaders had asked them to boycott.

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There's much more but this is entirely enough to support a brief commentary...

Lesson learned by the Sunnis:

"We just won't play by your rules or participate in your election" guarantees your candidate will NOT be elected and rule the country. Ooooops. Maybe next time they'll learn? (/me is still chuckling as he writes this.)

This was an election true but to form an assembly that will form basis for a government. They elected representatives to take part in this assembly. Iraq has had sovereignty since the Governing Council replaced the interim government authority (CPA) put in place by the coalition. Now this authority has been elected by the people instead of the CPA. The Governing Council has been using the Interim Constitution and their Bill of Rights to govern. Oh the TAL (transition administrative law) is the temporary guide until stability is achieved. It is interesting to note that the bill of rights contained in the TAL includes measures to ensure equality, but also the influence of Islam in law. Ok let me rephrase that, not an influence but the source from which law is developed. Like our system built around the often coined: Christian Judea principles as a foundation of what is right and wrong.

The Sunnis who listen to their religious leaders, who obviously do not desire a loss of control, are in a bad position. They should have voted. The problem is, they didn't think anyone else would show up and perhaps they can’t leave the control sphere of their spiritual captors?

Even the UN thinks the election was a success. Well they won’t actually say it but the say it “appears” to be a success. I have to admit I was against holding it so early, I thought perhaps Bush was being too quick and was motivated in politics versus what is best. But among the negatives of this issue one can't help but wonder how they feel over there. Here is one account from Barham Salih: "These elections would not have been possible without the liberation of Iraq, and without the sacrifice of the American and coalition forces in Iraq. And I hope the American public understands that those sacrifices have not been in vain. We're talking about democratic transformation in the heart of the Islamic Middle East, and it is a worthy objective."

So "no"; Americans should not leave until asked to do so by an elected government that is permanent and solid. A colleague asked me if I thought Americans would leave Iraq this year. "No". What about next year? "No” As already mentioned the United Nations has taken notice, and the European Union has pledged $261 Million Euro to the reconstruction effort. I hope we can come together finally and build a nation that is opposite to its past history and able to withstand the rough neighborhood it occupies on the geopolitical map.

The election of the permanent government should take place in December. It is my hope that by then, those who are killing people for supporting their elected government are diminished in capacity. Perhaps then a greater number of Citizens will have a voice to say "I want to vote!"

Zarqawi's intercepted message to his Al Qaeda comrades admitted that his terror band was "failing to enlist support" inside Iraq and was "unable to scare the Americans into leaving."

Zarqawi's document also suggested a strategic solution to his group's failure: launch attacks on Iraqi Shias and start a "sectarian war" that he suggested would "rally the Sunni Arabs" to his cause. This war against Shiites, Zarqawi thought, "must start soon -- at 'zero hour' -- before the Americans hand over sovereignty to the Iraqis."


They just need to glance at their hail-fellow brothers to the southeast in Kuwait. The Shi’a and Sunni get along in Kuwaiti life, which I’ll bring to your attention is pretty luxurious. Fact: non-Kuwaitis represent about 80% of the labor force. Qatar just finished an $80 million dollar racetrack in the middle of the desert.
Turkey put their finger in the eye of the US a few years back, now we are returning the gesture with the Kurds. Kurds are sitting on a decent amount of oil, if they do seperate they will become the next Qatar or Kuwait.

BlackIce: I can't believe that. They refuse to participate and then complain about the outcome. What kind of BS is that ?

This can also serve as a lesson here in the US (or wherever you may be)
If you don't participate in an election, and you are elegible, ie: over 18, not a felon, then you have absolutley NO right to complain about the outcome. If you refuse to vote and the guy you are rootin for doesn't win, under any circumstances, you are NOT allowed to complain. You didn't do anything about the problem, so you have absolutely NO right to complain about the outcome.

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"must start soon -- at 'zero hour' -- before the Americans hand over sovereignty to the Iraqis."

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Sovereignty was handed over last summer?