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I've always known that satellites larger than softballs can be tracked by our (Canadians) NORAD. But where did you read they can determine the type of missile that has been launched?........ I think it takes an ICBM only 30 minutes to get here from Russia. I know we have marked silos and all, but don't they have mobile ICBM's too?
Compare:
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/icbm/icbm_1.jpg
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Neither a point of origin or close visual inspection (especially mid-transit) will tell you either who launched the missle or what its payload happens to be.
The warhead could be a dud, could be conventional, biological, chemical, radiological...
The missile could have been launched by the government in that region, as the result of a coup, terrorists, system malfunction...
cheers,
catch