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I think it is much too early to be making any statements about the elections, positive or negative. I think the 60% turnout, considering the situation (bombings, threats, no cars, etc), was sufficient for there to be enough legitimacy and I hope that things work out, but only time will tell.
One thing I did consider encouraging was the number of people that were appeared to be quite happy with voting and celebrating and calling Iraq their country (as well as the performance of Iraqi security). I hope this is a sign that things will improve to the point that our troops can start coming home, but I hold no illusions that the reality on the ground could be quite different and can change quite quickly.
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That is true Nebulus, there were people dancing in the streets and waiting in line for hours, while at anytime someone could attack them. They were calling it their country and regardless of my political slant I cannot help but feel like the future has potential.
BTW everything leading up to opinions in this thread is speculation there is absolutely no word on any actual voting numbers other than a good estimate of national turnout.
And I want to say that those in the British plane that went down did not die in vain, if they could see the result of their help they would feel otherwise.
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Lets get this straight according to that data out of all the iraqis in the world, 93,847 registered to vote and then 60% turned up ?
or am i reading this wrong.
cause that would be 56,308 votes. Seems like a bit small a number.
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That number is that number of Iraqis that do not live in Iraq.... The estimate of people who voted in Iraqis about 8 million.
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Good. :D
I was confuzzeld about that for a bit.
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Interesting..... Not unpredictably so, but interesting all the same....
After about a day there are 9 votes.
4 were on the "I didn't agree with the policy side and I didn't think the election would work" side and 5 were in the I agreed with the policy and thought the election would work side..... But there is nothing in the middle.... I know it's hardly a scientific study and a reasonable sample size but so far it demonstrates the divide in the world regarding the policy and the election.
I would be interested to hear from the two who have said the election is a failure. Specifically, what factors are you looking at when you determine the failure? What would have had to happen for you to have considered it even a limited success? How nuch do you think that your expectation of failure of the election influences your determination that it did fail?
Just interested....
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Sorry about the confusion MoonWolf. If Tiger's estimate that 8 million voted, and only 93 thousand were from outside the country, then one would come to a conclusion that the great majority of votes were cast inside the country. And that outside influence to there democratic election is minimal? Even if it was substantial, those are Iraqis voting for the future of their homeland and it was the decision of the provisional government to allow that. Oh And of the 8 million... that represents 60 percent of those who registered so alot of Iraqis registered to vote. Sounds to me like they not only want democracy, they will eventually fight.
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tiger i was one who felt it was a failure, when a large comunity dosn't vote at all, its hard ot call an election a sucess...that would be like haveing an election in america where the latino vote didn't turn out at all, 0%, and then go on to say how we realy reached people in the election...this election didin't change anything about the situation there, and depending on how badly we have missread the Kurds and sistani (the big winners) it may have made things much worse. Or are you going to claim that the kurds wont be angleing for a indipendent state within a matter of years?
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bbalad, You can't force them to vote and in not doing so they are excercising their freedom. unfortunately they are too stupid to realize if they aren't afforded a voice in the government they could find themselves at the mercy of their leader. They are following someone blindly at the moment. 8 Million of them did vote. If the Kurds angle for a seperatist state, then Iraq will have a civil war to deal with, like we did... and Britain and the French... etc A faction of people refusing to vote on their own destiny is not a failure of the whole. Who are these people you speak off? How many are there? What do they represent. Do that have veto power in the assembly?
And if failure rides on "what if" nothing will ever be resolved. What if the kurds consider an Iraq where they have a voice in parliment is their home? What if it's changed to "The Republic of Democratic Arabs"? What if Mrs. Jones walks her dog in the rain on Tuesday?
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BBallad:
At this point you can't really say that a particular "section" voted zero percent....
There are stories from kirkuk which is 40% Sunni that claim a 95% turnout..... What does that mean? Not much on initial "guesses".... Let's wait and see what the Sunni turnout was.... Fair?
As an aside I read reports that Shia based 'parties" in the Sunni based southern regions were smart enough to understand that they _need_ the buy in of the Sunnis so they incorporated Sunnis in their "list of players" to give them the legitimacy they need and deserve....
The Iraqi's aren't dumb people..... They will work this out..... Will they need some help in the security "arena"? Yes, of course.... But now they all know that they aren't all alone in wanting freedom I think you will find that there will be an acceleration in the process.... Until yesterday there were 8 million people that thought that they were the only ones that felt the way they did..... now they know better..... ;)
