We awoke this morning to a subtle shift if the world balance of power. The events that are unfolding on our screens from Moscow have brought about this shift, but as yet the wider ripples of consequence have not been picked up by any media commentary I have seen. The quantum butterfly that has spread and flapped its wings in Moscow is about to cause a storm on the other side of the world.

It is too soon to draw substantiative links between this latest outrage and Al-Quaida, but the spin being placed on the issue by Vlaidimir Putin, who cites "foreign influence" in the matter, is heading along these lines and historical links between the Taliban and the Chechens are undeniable. In the 90's Al-Qaida nearly chose Chechnia as their strong-hold instead of Afghanistan. The release of Muslim hostages and the video of demands that has been released to Al-Jazeera (who seem to be on first name terms with every terrorist in the world) have done nothing to discredit this link.

Regardless now of whether or not such a link is ever proven, or even exists, Moscow now finds itself in a position where labeling the Chechens part of the Axis of evil is politically expedient. By doing so Moscow hopes to maintain some moral highground in the eyes of the international community for the backlash that this attrocity will no doubt provoke. Vladimir Putin would be committing political suicide by not reacting to the outrage that will be felt by Muscavites, and the key to international support for action against the Chechens is linking Chechnia with the Axis of evil. Regardless of the rights or wrongs of the matter this is already happening and is the cause of the subtle change in world politics that I alluded to.

This article is not about the Chechen war. Nor is it about the rights and wrongs of any future coalition involvement in Iraq. We have already discussed the later issue at length on these boards, and my knowledge of the former is too limited to make any comment other than that Moscow is unlikley to give up it's main source of oil. But if anthing, this attrocity (coupled with other recent Chechen acts, including the death of over 100 troops on a downed helicopter) is more likley to steel popular opinion in Moscow to step up it's supression of Chechen independance in the same way as 9/11 steeled the resolve of Washington against Iraq.

What I want to draw attention to is that Moscows attempts to lay the current outrage at the door of Al-Quadia and the resultant alignment with the US in the rhetoric of the "War on terror" is likley to have a substantiative effect on the Russian vote in the UN security council in the matter of the US proposed resolution on Iraq. In return for US compliance in Russias dealings with Chechnia, Moscow, who could have vetoed the resolution is now unlikley to do so. Moscow is also likley to exert pressure on the non-permenant members of the UN security council that fall within its political sphere of infulence to follow it's lead (I'm especially thinking of Bulgeria here, but there may be others - China? Probably not but who knows.).

The permanent members of the Security Council are France, US, Britain, Russia and China. I think we know where the UK and US stand. China will still probably abstain. Russia has no option now but to tow the US line for fear of international condemnation in it's dealings with the Chechens. France; well who knows what the French are likley to do. Besides the five permanent members, there are 10 non-permanent members of the Security Council: Bulgaria, Cameroon, Colombia, Guinea, Ireland, Mauritius, Mexico, Norway, Singapore, and Syria. A resolution cannot pass unless it has at least nine votes in favor and no veto from a permanent council member, but the evernts in Moscow have brought us one step closer to the brink.

This escalation of the 'War or terror' is as yet subtle, but the shift in the balance of world power that this represents may very well turn into a key event in history books in the next century, if there is anyone left to read or write them.