Bush has all the reasons to provocate war:
- He have to change the focus of the people as you said.
- War is very good for the economy.
- After the 9/11, all his credibility his based on his anti-terrorist politic. Without terrorists, it's not really efficient. But, what lucky man he is, usa have a credible evildoer in stock.
- With those operations in Irak, usa will be able to do some pressures on anothers states.

The fact that Irak is in a very bad situation with the embargo and the non existence of real interests for them to help terrorism are not predominants factors.