I not going to debate your overall point (whether or not open source software will hit mainstream) because that is all speculation, but I am going hit some of the points you made.

"Open-source is software created by hackers for hackers" - this is steadily changing. You can't tell me the KDE programmers are creating their GUI for hackers. Ask 100 hackers whether they would rather use their good old vi or use a GUI equivalent and 99 of them would say vi.

"There's no place you can call if something goes wrong", "you'll need an organization behind you" - Purchase any Linux package at a store and you get support. Exremely good support in fact. You can't call up MS and ask them why your sound isn't working even though you purchased Windows, but you can call up RH/Mandrake/etc. Even smaller projects like MySQL are supported by both the programmers that create it and other various companies.

Companies like Mandrake are looking at usability where it should be improved. There is a big distinction there. Not everything needs a fancy GUI.

"Most people don't work for fame and glory, they want cash. The organization isn't gonna come to life without a decent cash-flow" - I agree that the large percentage of programmers would choose money over fame and glory. Hell, I think very few actually want "fame and glory" - how many programmers in the world are actually considered famous? Bill Gates (not even really a programmer) and maybe Linus. The thing is, I think enough extremely good programmers would rather choose working on a big, challenging, interesting project rather than pumping out BS for a large company. Plus, the thing is, getting your name in the credits for an open-source project leads to more money. It means you are a dedicated, intelligent worker.